This is largely due to a combination of climate change and disrupted oil and gas markets.

15:51, Tue, May 5, 2026 Updated: 15:52, Tue, May 5, 2026

Detail of a man shopping in supermarket

It is much more expensive to buy essential products now (Image: Getty)

UK food prices are set to be 50% higher in November 2026 compared to mid-2021, when the cost-of-living crisis began. This suggests that the price growth seen over nearly 20 years before the crisis would be achieved in just over five years, the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) think tank said. Staples such as pasta, frozen vegetables, chocolate, eggs, beef and olive oil have seen some of the steepest rises. For example, the price of olive oil rose by 113%, beef by 64% and pasta by 50%.

A combination of extreme weather driven by climate change, global supply disruptions, and exposure to volatile oil and gas markets had increased pressures on the food system, the think tank found. Together, these forces pushed household food bills up by an average of £605 over 2022 and 2023.

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Senior man looking at olive oil in supermarket

Olive oil price rose by 113% (Image: Getty)

More recently, five climate-impacted foods - butter, milk, beef, chocolate and coffee - have been responsible for much of the price increases. Although these items make up just 11% of the average shopping basket, they account for nearly 40% of all food price inflation, according to ONS inflation data.

Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), said: "Trump's war in the Middle East is set to drive shopping bills higher as oil and gas prices spike. Scientists are predicting 2027 to be the hottest year on record with climate change combining with the El Nino effect kicking off this year.

"Three of England's worst harvests on record have been in the past five years. Unless we get to net zero emissions to stop climate change and bring balance to the system, food prices will spiral ever further, but net zero also means burning less oil and gas, so insulating our food system from the kind of price spikes we’ve been seeing since Russian invaded Ukraine."

Lower-income households are likely to be hit hardest by rising food prices. According to the Food Foundation, the most deprived fifth of the UK population would need to spend around 45% of their disposable income to meet government recommendations for a healthy diet, increasing to as much as 70% for households with children.

Anna Taylor, Executive Director of the Food Foundation, said: "Food prices rising this high, and this fast leaves families on the lowest incomes with nowhere left to cut except the food on their plate. When that happens, people skip meals, children go hungry, and diet-related illness rises - taking parents out of work and piling pressure on an NHS that can least afford it.

"The question for government isn't just how to respond to this crisis - it's whether we're finally going to build a food system resilient enough to withstand the next one."