Why Quebec's strategic reserve of maple syrup is running dry

It's roughly the size of 53 Olympic swimming pools, but the world's only strategic reserve of maple syrup — spread out across three Quebec warehouses — is running dry.

Producteurs et productrices acéricoles du Québec (PPAQ), the group that represents nearly 13,500 maple syrup producers in the province and oversees the reserve, said its stockpile will be "completely depleted" by the end of February.

According to PPAQ president Luc Goulet, that's largely because demand for Canadian maple syrup has soared around the world, including in the United States — the $1.2-billion industry's largest export market.

There has been a "sharp rise in exports," Goulet said in an interview with Radio-Canada's Midi-Info radio program this week.

"We have major challenges with the strategic reserve, which needs to be replenished. But we also have the challenge of developing our sector" to meet increased demand, he said.

So what exactly is going on, and should breakfast lovers be worried? Here's what we know.

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First, how does the reserve work?

Quebec's maple syrup producers set up the reserve in 2000 to try to stabilize supplies and prices, said Maurice Doyon, a professor at Laval University in Quebec City who specializes in agri-food economics.

The province produces 90 per cent of Canada's maple syrup and more than 70 per cent of the world’s supply.

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But the industry is heavily dependent on weather conditions: maple trees need regular springtime cycles of freezing and unfreezing to produce sap, which is transformed into syrup.

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Before the reserve existed, Quebec producers would have to lower prices when supplies outpaced demand. Conversely, prices would go up when demand exceeded supply after bad harvests.

"The idea was to manage that a bit better," Doyon told CBC.

A quota system was also put in place in the early 2000s to regulate production levels.

Today, the reserve can hold as many roughly 60 million kilograms, or 218,000 barrels, of maple syrup. "When there's a bad harvest, [they] can dip into that reserve to supply the market," Doyon said.

So did Quebec have a bad harvest?

No. This time, the reserve is running dry because Quebec's authorized maple syrup processors — who buy, bottle, process and market the sticky stuff — appear to have bought out what was there.

The reserve held 39.4 million pounds (around 18 million kilograms) of maple syrup in February, the PPAQ said.

In an email to CBC News, the organization said while it expects the reserve to be depleted by the end of February "once all volumes under contract have been delivered to buyers," the overall supply remains similar to what it was a year ago.

"Inventories have simply shifted from the strategic reserve to buyers' warehouses. We estimate that buyers' inventories have increased by more than 35 million pounds [about 15.8 million kilograms]."

Cans of maple syrup sit at the Bistro La dent Sucre sugar shack in St. Eustache, Que., on April 6, 2021. (Ryan Remiorz/The Canadian Press)

Why would processors buy from the reserve?

Doyon said processors don't have a strong incentive to dip into the reserve when it's full because they need to pay both for the syrup and to store what they don't immediately sell. But when the reserve is low, they are in competition with each other to secure their supply.

"It's initiated by the fact that the reserve is low," said Doyon, who likened buying up the reserve to taking out insurance.

"If disaster strikes — in other words, a bad harvest — they're going to be happy to have taken those precautions."

The Conseil de l'industrie de l'érable (CIE), which represents authorized processors in Quebec, said they "maintain inventories in their own warehouses to meet market needs throughout the year."

Asked how much maple syrup the processors have stored right now, the group told CBC it couldn't comment, citing confidential business practices.

"In a context where market growth is putting increased pressure on supply, our members must plan their needs flexibly to ensure business continuity and meet demand."

Why is there increased pressure on supply?

Both PPAQ and CIE say there has been a surge in global demand for maple syrup.

Canadian exports of maple products increased by 15.8 per cent in 2025 compared to the previous year, according to data provided by CIE. That followed a 9.3 per cent jump from 2023 to 2024.

Statistics Canada also said $844.2 million worth of Canadian maple products were exported last year — a 17.2 per cent increase from the previous year.

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What's fuelling demand internationally?

PPAQ's Goulet pointed to several factors, including uncertainty linked to U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs, which have not hit the maple industry yet, as well as success in promoting Canadian maple syrup abroad.

Sixty-five per cent of all Canadian exports in 2025 went to the U.S., the CIE said. The next largest market was Germany at seven per cent, followed by the U.K. at five per cent.

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Growing demand for "natural sweeteners" also has been credited with making maple syrup more popular, according to experts.

Will Quebec run out of maple syrup?

The PPAQ says it's not time to panic.

It said the processors' inventories coupled with an increase in the number of taps being installed across Quebec mean "there are no concerns about market supply in 2027, even if the upcoming crop is not particularly strong."

"That said, we are hoping for an exceptional season so that we can replenish the reserve."

Barrels of pasteurized maple syrup are stored at a strategic reserve warehouse in Plessisville, Que., on March 6. (Christinne Muschi/The Canadian Press)

But will 'an exceptional season' be possible?

We can't say for sure. Doyon said there are ultimately only two ways to get more maple syrup: get more sap out of the trees that are already tapped or tap more trees.

But both those things could be easier said than done, said Guillaume Moreau, another professor at Laval University who specializes in maple syrup production.

Tapping more trees is a challenge because maple syrup producers are competing with other interests — notably the hardwood lumber industry — to gain access to forests on public lands in Quebec.

Climate change also has created new challenges for producers, who have seen harvest periods gradually shift earlier in the year due to fluctuating temperatures, Moreau said.

"We're having trouble to know ahead of time whether it will be a bad year."

And with the reserve now sitting empty and climate change fuelling uncertainty, "we're ultimately at the mercy of that uncertainty," he told CBC.