Trump Sours on Putin, but Bromance may not be over

WASHINGTON: US president Donald Trump, long known for his admiration of Vladimir Putin, has taken a sharper tone against the Russian leader, though observers say the once-cozy relationship may not be over yet.

Trump on Monday (Jul 14) announced new arms transfers to Ukraine via Europe and threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that purchase Russian goods. While his rhetoric toward Putin has cooled, he stopped short of endorsing a bipartisan bill in Congress that would impose tariffs as high as 500 per cent.

DISAPPOINTMENT IN PUTIN

Speaking to reporters, Trump said he was "disappointed" in Putin, who continued to attack Ukrainian cities despite what Trump described as regular phone calls between the two leaders.

"I go home, I tell the first lady, 'You know, I spoke to Vladimir today, we had a wonderful conversation.' She said, 'Oh really? Another city was just hit,'" he said.

"I don't want to say he's an assassin, but he's a tough guy. It's been proven over the years. He's fooled a lot of people," Trump added.

Despite the criticism, Trump again blamed the 2022 invasion on his successor, Joe Biden, and said it would never have happened under his leadership.

TARIFF THREATS AND FRUSTRATION

Trump’s tariff threats are widely seen as a sign of frustration rather than a substantive policy shift.

"Trump had promised that he could get Putin to the negotiating table, and he has failed to do that," said Heather Conley, a former US State Department official now at the American Enterprise Institute.

His new moves come as part of what analysts describe as Trump’s attempt to reassert control over the conflict after a public fallout with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this year.

A DAMAGED IMAGE AS DEALMAKER

For Trump, Putin’s continued aggression has damaged the former president’s self-image as a master negotiator.

"For six months, President Trump tried to entice Putin to the table. The attacks have gone up, not down," said Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican ally of Trump who supports new sanctions.

"One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump," Graham added.

PUTIN’S CALCULATIONS

Putin, Russia's longest-serving leader since Stalin, has long signaled his rejection of Ukrainian sovereignty and blamed the West for Russia’s declining influence.

According to Conley, Russia's slow but steady gains on the battlefield, the deployment of North Korean troops, and the Kremlin’s full-scale mobilisation show that Putin is betting on outlasting Western resolve.

"The Kremlin has thrown everything into this," she said. "President Putin believes that this is just going to be a slow erosion of Ukraine's position and the West's position, and he will win this conflict on its own merits."

'TRUMP ALWAYS CHICKENS OUT'

Mark Montgomery, a retired US rear admiral and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Putin may have overestimated his ability to manipulate Trump.

He pointed to what some have dubbed the TACO theory — Trump Always Chickens Out.

"Putin thought he could take it to the limit each time, and he found out he was wrong," Montgomery said.

Still, analysts caution against assuming a complete rupture between the two men, citing Trump’s long-standing admiration for authoritarian strength and his history of downplaying US intelligence findings in favor of personal rapport with leaders like Putin.