Trump blames Democrats and Ukraine for soaring US fuel prices, not Iran war

Trump shifts blame for fuel price hikes to Democratic-led states such as California and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

With the United States midterm elections approaching, President Donald Trump has attempted to shift blame for high fuel prices from the US-Israel war on Iran to Democrats and Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries.

“What’s driving up Gasoline is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, because Record Numbers of Barrels are coming out now on an almost daily basis, but the word, ‘Refineries,’ where Russia’s are being blown up by Ukraine, and where ours are being closed up, in Blue States, like California, by the Dumocrats,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday.

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While Trump claims domestic refinery closures are driving the spike, daily exports through the Strait of Hormuz have actually plunged 97 percent since the war began, choking global supplies.

Petrol prices are continuing to climb for consumers. The average price for a gallon (3.79 litres) is $4.36, up from $4.14 a month ago and up from $2.98 on February 28, when the US and Israel first struck Iran, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

“The ongoing conflicts with Iran and Russia’s war with Ukraine are reinforcing each other, impairing oil product markets, but Middle Eastern flows are far from normal,” Rachel Ziemba, senior adjunct fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told Al Jazeera.

On Friday, G7 countries agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves amid pressure from the White House. Meanwhile, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hits its lowest level since 1982.

“US tells some [European Union] members to release ‘strategic reserves’ or face a potential US diesel export ban, pushing France and Germany to do so, oil prices, along with gasoline and diesel futures strongly lower as a result,” Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in a post on X.

Global pressures

Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure have also driven up prices, particularly diesel fuel. On Sunday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence claimed that it has disabled more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity.

“The damage to Russia’s refineries – and risk of more US sanctions on those who process Russian oil – are exacerbating the situation, but the underlying issue is still the volatile flows from the Middle East, the greater difficulty getting oil products out and the lower buffers in place,” Ziemba added.

The latest strikes come amid ongoing attacks since the war between Russia and Ukraine began in 2022. In June, Russian refinery throughput hit its lowest level in two decades, according to an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The analysis also found that diesel production has fallen 30 percent over the past 18 months.

Trump has also blamed price increases on refining cuts in Democratic-led states such as California, where two refineries have shut down over the past year. The closures reduced the state’s refining capacity by 17 percent, creating some supply gaps, according to an analysis by S&P Global.

However, Trump’s effort to shift blame to Democrats comes ahead of consequential midterm elections that could shape the balance of power in Washington. At the same time, most Americans appear to blame Trump for rising prices. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 65 percent of Americans blamed Trump’s policies for higher prices, while 61 percent said the US economy is worse off than when Trump returned to office.