These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency

The most important elections in next Tuesday's U.S. midterms are in the handful of states and districts where polling suggests the Republicans and Democrats are locked in tight races.

The Democratic Party needs a net gain of just three seats to take control of the 435-member House of Representatives, a target that polling analysis suggests is well within reach.

The far more difficult task for Democrats will be wresting control of the Senate from U.S. President Donald Trump's Republican Party.

To achieve a 51-49 Senate majority, Democrats need a net gain of four seats. That requires flipping at least two states Trump won by double digits in 2024, such as Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Texas or Kansas.

Here's a look at the pivotal races to watch in Tuesday's midterm elections.

Senate: Maine

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican representing Maine, speaks with gun shop owner Rick LaChapelle at a campaign stop in Lewiston, Me. on Oct. 21. (Robert F. Bukaty/The Associated Press)

• Candidates: (R) Sen. Susan Collins vs. (D) Troy Jackson

Collins has held this seat for 30 years, even though Maine has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

Collins has kept winning elections by persuading enough Democrats that she gets results for Maine in Washington. Most recently, she took credit for Trump's moves to exempt certain Canadian products used by Maine businesses from the crushing 50 per cent tariffs he'd imposed in late August.

The question is whether Maine voters will punish Collins for being a Republican this time or reward her for the occasions when she stood up to Trump.

• Trump's tariffs are unpopular in Maine. A Republican senator may pay the price

Her Democratic Party opponent is a former logger turned politician from a small town in northern Maine. Jackson entered the race only in July after the original nominee, Graham Platner, stepped down amid allegations he had sexually assaulted a former partner.

• Key issues: Trump's posture toward Canada has led to a sharp drop in Canadians crossing the border to visit Maine. His war in Iran triggered a 74 per cent jump in the price of furnace oil, which roughly half of all households in the state use to heat their homes.

Senate: Michigan

Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is hoping to put U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada on the ballot in Michigan this November. (Sylvia Thomson/CBC News)

• Candidates: (D) Abdul El-Sayed vs (R) Mike Rogers

This seat was thrown open by incumbent Democrat Gary Peters' decision not to seek re-election. If Democrats can't hold Michigan, their path to a Senate majority becomes significantly tougher.

El-Sayed is a medical doctor and staunch progressive who was born in the U.S. to Egyptian immigrant parents. Since winning the Democratic nomination in August, he has become a frequent target of Trump's attacks.

Trump launched an Islamophobic rant against El-Sayed during a rally Sunday in the border town of Port Huron, Mich. The president called him a "jihadist" and warned that a Democratic win would bring "hordes of jihadis to our shores, creating a nightmare of violence and terror."

• 'Canada is not our enemy': Michigan Republican Senate candidate breaks with Trump on trade war

• A Michigan Democrat wants to put Canada on the ballot during the midterms. Are voters listening?

Rogers, a former FBI agent who served in the House for 14 years, has attempted to put some distance between himself and Trump on Canada-U.S. relations. He launched a new ad this month in which he said, "We need to end this tariff war now," while sitting in a sports bar with a Labatt beer.

• Key issues: Trump's tariffs on Canadian products and the breakdown in trade talks are causing upheaval in the auto industry, Michigan's economic engine. Michigan residents have faced higher tariff costs per household than any other state, according to a recent study by the National Taxpayers Union Foundation.

Senate: Ohio

Trump listens as Republican Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio speaks at a campaign rally in Youngstown, Ohio on Oct. 12. (Gene J. Puskar/THe Associated Press)

• Candidates: (R) Sen. Jon Husted vs (D) Sherrod Brown

Husted was appointed to the seat in 2025 to replace JD Vance when Vance became Trump's vice-president. Before that, Husted had a lengthy career in state politics, holding elected office since 2001.

Trump has recently commented frequently on the 59-year-old Husted's athletic physique, including at events outside of Ohio.

"I examined his ass," the president said at a rally in Kentucky on Oct. 17. "I then patted him on the shoulder, and it was like a piece of steel. I'm still recovering."

Brown has been in politics for more than 50 years, first elected to the state legislature just before his 22nd birthday. He held Ohio's other U.S. Senate seat from 2007 until losing his re-election bid in 2024.

• In Ohio, Canada-U.S. trade war sparks anger and uncertainty

• Data centre backlash is a problem for Trump’s Republicans

Brown has long advocated targeted tariffs to protect U.S. manufacturing jobs but has consistently criticized Trump's sweeping tariffs, including those on Canadian goods, as ineffective and inflationary.

• Key issues: Ohio is a often considered a bellwether state, so the issues top of mind for voters there mirror those resonating across the country: the rising cost of living and whether Trump's war against Iran and his tariffs are to blame. Concern over the spread of data centres is also emerging as a local issue that could affect the statewide race.

Senate: Texas

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, right, greets a supporter at a campaign rally in Allen, Tex. on Oct. 19. Paxton is the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Texas, running against Democrat James Talarico. (Mike Crawley/CBC)

• Candidates: (R) Ken Paxton vs (D) James Talarico

Democrats haven't won a U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988, the year before Talarico was born.

Yet polls suggest Trump himself has put the seat at risk by rejecting incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and endorsing Paxton — the state's scandal-ridden attorney general — as the Republican candidate.

A Republican loss in Texas would be the most significant midterm repudiation of Trump in the country. Paxton seems to realize the burden.

"I'm not exaggerating when I say if we lose Texas, we lose America," he told an Oct. 19 rally in Fort Worth.

• Trump's scandal-plagued pick wins Texas Senate primary run-off — and Democrats see an opening

• Why Republicans are questioning the masculinity of Texas Democratic Senate contender James Talarico

In their campaign stump speeches, the rivals describe each another in extreme terms. Talarico calls Paxton "the most corrupt politician in Texas," while Paxton says a vote for Talarico is "a vote for every dangerous idea that Democrats across the country are putting forward right now."

• Key issues: The Latino community accounts for roughly one in every five eligible voters in Texas. It supported Trump in record numbers in the 2024 presidential election, but Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) targeting thousands of non-criminals who've been in the U.S. for years could swing many of those voters toward Talarico.

Senate: Iowa

Iowa Republican nominee for U.S. Senate Ashley Hinson, right, speaks during a televised debate with Democratic nominee Josh Turek on Oct. 13 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Charlie Neibergall/The Associated Press)

• Candidates: (R) Ashley Hinson vs (D) Josh Turek

Both parties believe they've nominated appealing candidates in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Hinson was a TV reporter and anchor before winning a House seat in 2020. Turek is a three-time Paralympian in wheelchair basketball who was born with spina bifida after his father was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam.

Both candidates have tried to persuade Iowa voters they aren't beholden to their party or its leadership. Hinson has said she will stand with Trump on issues such as border security but stand up to him when she believes his policies are wrong for Iowa.

• How Iowans feel about Trump's tariffs, Canada's treatment as Republicans vie for support

Turek, campaigning in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate in 16 years, has described himself as "proudly a moderate" and said he and Trump could agree on many issues.

• Key issues: Farmers are a major voting bloc in Iowa and rely on diesel to fuel their equipment. For months, Trump brushed aside concerns about soaring fuel prices, driven largely by the war with Iran. Less than two weeks before election day, he announced $8 billion US in one-time payments to farmers to offset diesel costs.

Other notable Senate races

• North Carolina appears poised to be the mostly likely state for Democrats to flip.

Incumbent Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, Trump only carried the state by three percentage points in 2024, and Democratic candidate Roy Cooper served 16 years as North Carolina's attorney general and two terms as governor.

His opponent Michael Whatley, the former chair of the Republican National Committee, is a political backroomer who has never held elected office.

• Alaska has sent only one Democrat to the U.S. Senate in the past 50 years. But there are clear signs the Republicans are worried this time.

At Trump's behest, the Department of Justice launched a lawsuit seeking to bar the state from certifying the election if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan loses. The ostensible reason: there is also an independent candidate on the ballot named Daniel J. Sullivan.

The Democratic candidate is Mary Peltola. She and Minnesota Democratic candidate Peggy Flanagan could become the first Indigenous women elected to the U.S. Senate.

• In Kansas, no Democrat has won a U.S. Senate election since 1932.

Yet polls suggest that could change in 2026. Similar dynamics are at play in Kansas as in Iowa: farmers are upset by soaring diesel prices triggered by the Iran war and rising input costs resulting from tariffs.

Republican incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall is up against Democrat Adam Hamilton, founding pastor of a megachurch.

WATCH | How last winter's ICE crackdown in Minnesota could affect this fall's midterms:

House races to watch

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for election.

However, various websites that analyze U.S. politics — including the Cook Political Report, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, Decision Desk HQ and 270toWin — currently rate no more than 50 of them as truly competitive.

Here are a few of the key Republican-held districts Democrats are targeting in their effort to take control of the House.

• Virginia 1st district: (R) Rob Wittman (incumbent) vs (D) Shannon Taylor

Polls close in Virginia at 7 p.m. ET, so this race could provide one of the earliest indications of what kind of a night it will be for Republicans and Democrats. The district, which stretches from the suburbs of the state capital, Richmond, to the historic city of Williamsburg, was flagged by the Washington Post as one of the "bellwether races to watch" in the midterms.

• Pennsylvania 7th district: (R) Ryan Mackenzie (incumbent) vs (D) Bob Brooks

This district, centred on the working-class city of Allentown, has swung between Democrats and Republicans four times since 2006. Latinos make up nearly one-quarter of eligible voters. Mackenzie won the seat in 2024 by a one-point margin. Brooks is a former firefighter who has never held elected office.

• New York 17th district: (R) Mike Lawler (incumbent) vs (D) Cait Conley

Lawler's pitch to voters in this Hudson Valley district includes what he has called his "strong working relationship" with Trump as a way to get things done in Washington. Conley is a West Point graduate who served in Iraq and Afghanistan and is making her first run for office. She has put her military background front and centre in her campaign advertising.

Democrat Bobby Pulido, a famous singer among the Latino community, is trying to unseat Republican Monica De La Cruz in the race for the 15th Congressional district of Texas. (Mike Crawley/CBC)

• Texas 15th district: (R) Monica De La Cruz (incumbent) vs (D) Bobby Pulido

Democrats recruited a star candidate for this South Texas race: Pulido is a two-time Latin Grammy Award winner. De La Cruz tried to dismiss him as unserious by saying the election "isn't about who you want performing at your niece's quinceañera." Pulido seized on the remark by taking his campaign to quinceañeras, the traditional celebration of a girl's 15th birthday.

• Ohio 7th district: (R) Max Miller (incumbent) vs (D) Brian Poindexter

This district in Cleveland's western suburbs wasn't originally a prime target for Democrats. That changed after Miller's ex-wife — the daughter of Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno — accused him of physical abuse, including throwing boiling water at her and holding a gun to her head. Miller has denied the allegations.

Poindexter is an ironworker and city councillor in the working-class community of Brook Park.

• Michigan 10th district: (R) Michael Bouchard vs (D) Christina Hines

This race in Detroit's northern suburbs is open because incumbent Republican John James is running for governor. Bouchard is an Army veteran whose ads have focused on being tough on crime and securing the southern border.

Hines is a former prosecutor who boasts of having put "hundreds of predators, murderers, and pedophiles in jail."