Key Factors That Could Shape BC’s Snap Election Campaign

A number of factors are at play in B.C.’s election campaign, including whether the BC Conservatives can maintain their newly reformed unity, how “orphan” voters who don’t have a side cast their votes, and how the electorate may react to the governing NDP’s snap election call, as it enjoyed a comfortable lead in the polls leading up to the election call.

Eby said during his Sept. 22 election announcement in Victoria that he was seeking a “strong mandate” amid U.S. tariffs.

“We need a strong mandate from British Columbians to stand up to Donald Trump, to protect our economy and to make sure that we can deliver the services that people depend on,” he said.

BC Conservatives’ newly minted leader Lorne Doerkson accused Eby of calling a “cynical snap election.”

“It’s a cheap, opportunistic political move, and it could cost tens of millions of dollars,” he said at his first post-election-call press conference on Sept. 22.

Michael MacKenzie, professor of political studies at Vancouver Island University, said that Eby’s early election call goes against established political norms, which could backlash.

He said these norm violations include not timing an election to take advantage of an opposition party in disarray and not overlapping with other ongoing campaigns.

Kimberly Speers, a political scientist and associate teaching professor at the School of Public Administration at the University of Victoria, offered a different view, saying his electoral strategy may pay off given his campaign is focused on Trump.

“Eby has received a bump because of Trump, basically,” Speers told The Epoch Times, noting a Sept. 16 Angus Reid poll which found that Eby’s approval went up from 31 percent this past June to 41 percent in September.

“That’s not a bad stat to be going in in terms of an election, and especially when there are really no other parties that are as organized in terms of just election capacity.”

Jason Morris, a senior instructor in political science at the University of Northern British Columbia, echoed this point, saying that the B.C. NDP has a number of advantages over its opposition.

“The NDP has the advantage of incumbency not to mention the opposition being in disarray,” he said in an interview.

However, Morris added that the advantages currently enjoyed by the NDP may not be enough to carry the day.

“The B.C. NDP will be on the defensive while the need for a mandate is more clearly articulated,” he said, adding that the party will have to make a case that shows why it was necessary to call the election “beyond political opportunism.”

Kathryn Harrison, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, also said taht Eby may have put himself at a disadvantage by making a central part of the election about why there needs to be an election in the first place.

Findlay’s resignation followed months of party turmoil, including three caucus removals and 10 MLAs who resigned. Seven of the recent defectors became members of CentreBC, which was led by former B.C. Conservative leadership candidate Peter Milobar.

Milobar and six other CentreBC MLAs rejoined the Conservative caucus on Sept. 22, while former BC Conservative MLA Elenore Sturko remained with CentreBC, becoming their leader. As well, several of the legislators who had quit, including former leader John Rustad and former interim leader Trevor Halford returned to the party.

But putting a caucus back together won’t necessarily heal the divisions that led to its breakup, according to MacKenzie.

“There are people in the centre-right who have very different aims and objectives and views from those on the farther right, and that’s what’s pulling this conservative movement apart,” MacKenzie said.

Although MacKenzie said there will be a “strong incentive” for people with past differences to work together during an election, he said that will not necessarily resolve the underlying policy disagreements or the “bad blood that has been produced over the last couple of years.”

Speers agrees, saying while they may have united “externally,” he’s “not sure if they can put aside perhaps their ideological differences, power differences, to win this election.”

Hamish Telford, an associate professor of political science at the University of the Fraser Valley, said the ability of the right to remain together is at the core of how the election will turn out.

“If they remain divided, the NDP should cruise to victory,” Telford told The Epoch Times.

“But if the Conservatives manage to get their act together and come together united, then they could give the NDP a run for its money, like they did last time,” he added, referring to the B.C. Conservatives’ 2024 rise from a marginal party to Official Opposition.

Azim Jiwani, who served as chief of staff under former B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad, said the fact that Eby called a snap election is going to help the right to unite. 

“I think that Eby calling this election has galvanized the right to reunite, and, in that sense, it already has backfired,” he said.

He pointed to Ontario’s 1990 provincial election when Liberal Premier David Peterson called an early election and lost to the NDP under Bob Rae due to what many analysts saw as voters punishing what they felt was an unnecessary election.

An Angus Reid poll carried out Sept. 8 to 15 suggested that 51 percent of British Columbians describe themselves as “political orphans” who don’t strongly support any provincial party.

“Where are those votes going to go, if they even do vote?” Speers said.

Morris also emphasized the rapid changes taking place in B.C. politics and how support for candidates or parties could change quite unpredictably in the leadup to Oct. 24.

“Think of how much has changed in the past few months with respect to the opposition parties,” he said.

An Ipsos poll conducted Sept. 8 to 14 found cost of living and inflation the top issue for 56 percent of respondents in the province, followed by healthcare at 40 percent and housing at 34 percent.

Speers said BC Conservative focus on repealing B.C.’s Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples Act (DRIPA) is likely to still figure prominently in the campaign.

“There are some people that just feel so strongly about it, and so I think that will be a wedge issue,” she said, adding that she expects the right to focus on the NDP government’s fiscal record as well.

In his first post-election call press conference, Doerkson confirmed that DRIPA will be a main campaign focus for his party.

Paul Kershaw, an associate professor at UBC’s School of Population and Public Health, said that health care will also feature prominently in the campaign.

“It’s not a long time to get organized and present candidates as well,” she said, adding there are many “practical political organization tasks they have to undertake” from fielding candidates to ordering signs and getting local campaigns up and running.

Some party supporters have also said they are dismayed by the caucus’s ouster of Findlay, who won a leadership contest by party members on May 30. Some have said they will shift their support to OneBC, formed by former BC Conservative MLA Dallas Brodie,  who was ousted from the party in 2025. Just ahead of the election call on Sept. 22, the party’s MLA count went up by one as Findlay’s husband, Brent Chapman, left the BC Conservatives to join OneBC.

Morris said the presence of the smaller parties such as OneBC and CentreBC will also factor in the election outcome.

“These new and smaller parties likely need to consolidate or find ways to not contest each other, riding-by-riding. It will be a supreme challenge for each of them to nominate a full slate of candidates,” he said.

Recent polls show the B.C. NDP with varying leads on the B.C. Conservatives, including an Ipsos survey carried out Sept. 8 to 14 with the NDP at 45 percent and the Tories at 35 percent, and a poll by Research Co. Aug. 18 putting the NDP at 44 percent and the Conservatives at 39 percent. Angus Reid’s latest survey done Sept. 8 to 15 showed the NDP ahead at 41 percent compared to 37 percent for the Conservatives among decided and leaning voters. The poll was conducted while Findlay was still leader.

Despite their lead, MacKenzie said the NDP has serious weak spots in addition to defending the calling of a snap election.

“I don’t think the NDP are a sure thing,” he said. “They are trying to deal with a lot of very difficult situations, in particular the large budget deficit, but they are not widely popular among the population right now, and I think that this is a real gamble.”

Kershaw also stated that the race could be unpredictable, noting that “B.C. politics has a reputation for delivering unexpected results.”