The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Oct. 2 that global food prices rose in September amid transport disruptions in the Black Sea, uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and adverse weather conditions.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in international prices for a basket of widely traded food commodities, averaged 136 points last month.
That was up 1.5 percent from a revised August reading and 5.8 percent higher than a year earlier, according to the agency.
The FAO report comes as global agricultural markets continue to face geopolitical and weather-related risks.
Russia and Ukraine have intensified attacks on each other’s infrastructure in recent months, including grain terminals in the Black Sea region.
Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine remains one of the world’s largest grain producers, making the region a key supplier to international grain markets.
Separately, concerns persist over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula.
Under normal conditions, the corridor carries roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade, about 35 percent of seaborne crude oil shipments, and around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade.
“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build-up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities,” said FAO chief economist Maximo Torero.
“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food- and energy-import-dependent countries.”
Cereals, Sugar Drive Gains
Cereals accounted for much of September’s increase.
The FAO said international wheat prices rose 6.3 percent from August, reflecting transport constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather across parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting.
Maize prices increased 5.6 percent on concerns over U.S. production prospects, lower export availability from Brazil, and continued disruption to Black Sea trade. Uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also supported maize prices, the agency said.
Sugar recorded the largest monthly increase among the major commodity groups, rising 6.1 percent.
The FAO attributed the gain to expectations of tighter global supplies during the 2026–27 season, citing lower production forecasts for Thailand, concerns about Indian crops because of below-average rainfall and a strengthening El Niño, excessive rainfall in Brazil’s Centre-South growing region, and reduced sugar beet planting in the European Union.
Some food categories saw declines, including the meat price index, which fell 1.1 percent as pig and poultry prices fell amid ample export supplies. Brazilian beef prices rose on stronger U.S. import demand, while sheep meat prices remained broadly stable.
El Niño
A separate FAO-backed report said on Oct. 2 that elevated freight rates, firmer fertilizer prices, and continued logistical disruptions are increasing uncertainty across global agricultural markets.
The report also said a strengthening El Niño weather pattern is creating additional uncertainty for crop production, particularly rice output in South and Southeast Asia.
Global rice yields during El Niño events are typically 1 to 1.5 percent below their long-term trend. Wheat and maize yields generally remain close to trend, while soybean yields are often 1.5 to 2 percent above trend.
Despite mounting weather and logistical concerns, the World Bank said in its Sept. 28 Food Security Update that global food markets remain broadly stable and food supplies are generally adequate.
The bank added that El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through late 2026 and persist into early 2027, increasing the risk of weather extremes that could affect agricultural production.
Andrew Moran contributed to this report.
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